Potential limitations of the McKinsey Institute’s “Disruptive Technologies”

The McKinsey Institute’s 2013 report, “Disruptive technologies: Advances that will transform life, business, and the global economy,” identifies twelve general categories of technology with the greatest potential for high rates of advancement, multi-sectorial impact, high economic value, and high-magnitude impact. The methodology by which the authors arrived at their conclusions include qualitative methods like interviews and literature reviews as well as quantitative modeling based on current rates of technology diffusion.

The value (and accuracy) of such forecasts deserves its own debate, but for the sake of brevity I will point out one particular phrase that raises a flag:

“We do not take into account less tangible barriers such as cultural resistance or political opposition, as these barriers could potentially be overcome by 2025” (p. 13).

This assumption is worthy of considerable scrutiny.  As we have discussed in class, most innovations diffuse at a slow rate. For example, it took over 200 years for James Lind’s simple cure for scurvy to be widely implemented because of credibility and acceptance issues. Many of the technologies in the McKinsey Institute report could face similar barriers.

Automation of knowledge work:  Fear that such innovation could take jobs away from low- and lesser-skilled workers could be an insurmountable barrier for such advancements. The benefit of such technology to suppliers could be offset by the reduced spending power of the newly (if only temporarily) unemployed. Such fears are summarized in this excerpt from “Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future.”

Internet of things: with the renewed emphasis on privacy and surveillance brought about by Julian Assange and Edward Snowden, the idea of a network of devices that “monitor” humans, so to speak, is an unsettling concept for many. As The Guardian reported in April, some fear that such technologies will take the power to control private information away from consumers and put it in the hands of companies and governments.

Advanced robotics: Artificial intelligence alarmists have captured the attention of science fiction junkies for decades, but in recent months a handful of industry leaders including Bill Gates, Elon Musk, and Stephen Hawking have expressed concerns over this technology.

Autonomous vehicles: Self-driving cars and trucks will likely face trust issues similar to those faced by artificial intelligence. Even though autonomous vehicles have potential to dramatically reduce driving accidents, a 2014 poll found that 65% of Americans think self-driving vehicles are “a dangerous idea.”

Advanced oil and gas exploration and recovery: Opposition from environmental advocacy groups could present a challenge to the expansion of new energy extraction solutions like hydraulic fracturing. A report released this week by a British NGO concluded that “fracking” poses significant health and environmental risks and proposed a moratorium on the practice in the UK and throughout the EU until a more sound regulatory structure is implemented.

With these obstacles in mind, and with the story of past innovations as our prologue, then we may expect these technologies to advance at a somewhat slower speed than the McKinsey Institute has predicted.