The Risks of an Exponentially Increasing Market

While reading through the incredible innovations with cell phones in developing countries, and the process of which to achieve successful implementations, I couldn’t help picturing the boom and decline of the “dot com” era of the 1990’s in the United States.  Clearly these companies are providing extremely useful services for its target market, and utilizing new and innovative approaches to do so.  But the article that states “global mobile cellular technology will surpass 100% within the next decade” brings to mind an extremely accelerated growth of exponential proportions.  The possibility and potential for growth, whether it’s business income or improving the lives of the users, is as positive as it is an invitation for companies or individuals who are not as responsible with their missions and profit making as the social innovators who are currently jumping into the field.

The 1990’s internet boom in the United States also had that exponential feel.  The leaders in the market clearly showed that many services can be made available and affordable more efficiently, and could turn a quick (or long term) profit for the owners.  The exponential growth attracted people because of the huge realm of possibilities.  The more people that jumped onto the “dot com” train, the more options were available.  Soon people who did not spend valuable time analyzing their markets and carefully adapting any kind of business plan saturated the market until disaster struck. 

There are a number of companies who started during this time and are still hugely successful, like Amazon and eBay.  However, the natural selection of internet users effectively weeded out the less useful sites and the American e-commerce industry is no worse for the wear.  But can Michael Malime, the farmer in Uganda, weather through a market explosion and decline of the “dot com” proportions?  The holes that are being filled and the needs that are being met in developing countries are not as superficial as many of the U.S. companies that jumped in the expanding market.  How do we ensure that the people who are benefitting from mobile-based, and soon internet-based technology do not suffer from the failure of an exponentially expanding market’s sudden demise?  This invites the issue of evaluating evaluate these companies and organizations that are entering the market, and that conversation is being debated hotly by many parties.

I do not have an answer for this issue, but I believe it deserves thought.  Once these innovative companies identify, enter, and effectively meet needs with a large profit, others will try and enter solely for the profit without the care to their consumers or their business plan.  Can they sustain that kind of market trauma and how do we ensure that they don’t have to?