Linking Rapid Urbanization, Technology and Resource Scarcity

“Global Trends 2030: Alternative World” presents several unique perspectives on how global megatrends could create alternate versions of the world in 2030.  Three of these megatrends collide at a unique locus.  The intersection of rapid urbanization, accelerated technological innovation and increasing resource scarcity create unique opportunities for the cities of the future.  Rapid urbanization will create urban centers in places where no city previously existed – how effectively innovative technologies are used to plan, design, construct and maintain new urban cores in the East and South will either contribute to greater efficiencies around the consumption of limited resources like energy and water or exacerbate the growing scarcity. 

Many views of the future constructed over the last fifty years resemble an episode of the Jetsons: flying vehicles weave between space-age buildings in a floating city.  But the current physical environment, while advanced, isn’t as advanced as what the Jetsons projected.  What’s actually happened since the Jetsons first aired is that technological advances in communication have exceeded those projected by the show’s creators – while other areas have lagged behind.

Our physical environment has been slower to change because the infrastructure created twenty, fifty, even one hundred years ago is still functioning and in use today in many parts of the developed world.  For example, the University of Pittsburgh’s Cathedral of Learning was constructed 80 years ago and it’s still in use. While the Cathedral of Learning is very structurally sound and can accommodate myriad functions, it’s not nearly as efficient as Carnegie Mellon’s Robert Mehrabian Collaborative Innovation Center, considered to be one of the most energy efficient and healthy buildings in existence according to the Green Building Alliance.  In my experience working in facilities design and construction, it’s much easier to design and build a new building for optimal efficiency than it is to retrofit existing construction—the same is true of cities.    

What does this say about the opportunities around rapid urbanization in the developing world?  One implication is that through technology we can create smarter cities starting from scratch.  “Global Trends 2030” predicts that new urban centers will grow in areas where there was no preexisting city.  Planning, designing and building cities that consume fewer of the already scarce resources like water and energy is essential for success. 

A study conducted by the United Nations Economic Commission of Europe focused on the challenges around smart growth as the foundation for better city design in rapidly urbanizing areas.  The study found that most of the “smart city” practices around the use of new technologies for energy efficiency could be cost prohibitive to developing economies.  As the US and China begin to pour resources into infrastructure for developing nations, they need to consider the importance of investing in infrastructure and technology that promotes the most efficient use of water and energy.  In doing so, the developed world can help create cities of the future.  Can the developing world actually become leaders in sustainable urban development?